So here we go. Oscars are tonight so let's break down the top films and on the categories I didn't talk about we'll rapid fire at the end. I've broken down the nominations into a few categories, for example in a normal 5 nomination category, the "Front Runner" is obviously the one I expect to win, anything marked "Dark Horse" I rank as the 2nd or 3rd most likely,"No Chance" I ranked 4th or 5th. Since there are 8 Best Picture nominees I added an extra Dark Horse and Front Runner. I've also added what I think they should win. Anyways on to the pictures!
Roma (10 nominations)
Quick thoughts: I really didn't enjoy this movie, foreign language films are a tough sell for me and the story was pretty bland (heh, cause it's in black and white). That being said this is getting the most buzz and is tied for the most nominations.
Front Runner: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Language Film
Dark Horse: Best Original Screenplay
No Chance: Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Production Design, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing.
Should Win: Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Language Film
The Favourite (10 nominations)
Quick thoughts: It was mildly interesting but it's basically your typical Oscar fodder film. It was shot beautifully and the acting was top notch but the story otherwise lacked.
Front Runner: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume Design
Dark Horse: Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress (x2), Best Cinematography, Best Production Design
No Chance: Best Film Editing
Should Win: Best Actress
A Star Is Born (8 nominations)
Quick thoughts: The acting was good, the direction was superb but there was no story. They literally meet in the first 20 minutes and the next hour and a half is just them being in love, her getting famous, him drinking before a tour de force last 30 minutes.
Front Runner: Best Original Song
Dark Horse: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Sound Mixing
No Chance: Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography
Should Win: Best Supporting Actor
Vice (8 nominations)
Quick thoughts: Adam McKay has really found his niche recently and although this one pales in comparison to The Big Short it's still an excellent look at one of the most polarizing administrations in US history.
Front Runner: Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Dark Horse: Best Actor, Best Film Editing
No Chance: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Best Film Editing, Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Black Panther (7 nominations)
Quick thoughts: One of my favourite films of the year. Deserves all the praise as a modern action classic and deserves to break the comic book movies mold.
Front Runner: Best Production Design
Dark Horse: Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Original Song
No Chance: Best Picture, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing
Should Win: Best Picture, Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, Best Original Score,
BlacKkKlansman (6 nominations)
Quick thoughts: A supremely poignant and funny film that tackles a serious issue. Spike Lee is back baby and he'll definitely break his 0fer at the Oscars this year.
Front Runner: Best Adapted Screenplay
Dark Horse: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Film Editing
No Chance: Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Score
Should Win: Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay
Green Book (5 nominations)
Quick thoughts: A very interesting look at how black people were forced to live 2 separate lives during the segregation. It's hard to find any faults with this movie, unfortunately it just doesn't overpower in any category compared to it's peers but it's the most solid all around.
Front Runner: Best Supporting Actor
Dark Horse: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay
No Chance: Best Actor, Best Film Editing
Should Win: Best Original Screenplay
Bohemian Rhapsody (5 nominations)
Quick thoughts: An interesting look into the life of superstar Freddie Mercury and his bandmates. A powerhouse performance from Rami Malek carried the film even if the rest of the film lags behind the power of it's star.
Front Runner: Best Actor, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Dark Horse: Best Sound Editing
No Chance: Best Picture
Should Win: Best Actor, Best Sound Mixing
Mary Poppins Returns (4 nominations)
Quick thoughts: Not being a big fan of the first I had lower expectations and I enjoyed the film for the most part. The songs were great, the colours and feel was vibrant. The actors held their own and the story was good, even if not great. But this was never a real Oscar contender.
Front Runner: None
Dark Horse: Best Production Design, Best Original Score
No Chance: Best Original Song, Best Costume Design
Should Win: Best Original Song
First Man (4 nominations)
Front Runner: None
Dark Horse: Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects
No Chance: Best Production Design
Should Win: None
If Beale Street Could Talk (3 nominations)
Quick thoughts: This was a good film with solid performances across the board. In fact I'm really surprised at it's lack of representation at the awards but it's possibly due to it not being seen by enough people with it's late release and general lack of buzz to start off the award season.
Front Runner: Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Score
Dark Horse: Best Adapted Screenplay
No Chance: None
Should Win: Best Supporting Actress
The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs (3 nominations)
Quick thoughts: This anthology film had some highs (including the one it's named after) but also some real duds that the Cohen brothers whiffed on. Overall it's worth a watch even if you just skip the ones that don't draw you in early.
Front Runner: None
Dark Horse: Best Original Song, Best Costume Design
No Chance: Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: None
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Quick thoughts: I was intrigued enough in the story to look it up afterwards and unfortunately when I realized the film took some liberties that it really didn't need to it ruined it a little bit for me. The acting is still stellar however.
Front Runner: None
Dark Horse: Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay
No Chance: Best Actress
Should Win: None
Now for the lightning round of other should/will wins
Best Sound Editing - I think A Quiet Place should and will win.
Best Visual Effects - I only touched on First Man above which could win but I think it's more likely Avengers wins however the victory should go to Ready Player One.
Best Animated Feature - This is all Spider-Verse and you know what? I'm okay with it even if I slightly preferred Ralph.
Showing posts with label Oscars Roundup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oscars Roundup. Show all posts
Sunday, 24 February 2019
Sunday, 26 February 2017
Special: 2017 Oscars Roundup!
Hey everyone, the Oscars are tonight so it's time for me to give you my picks for what movies I think will win the awards tonight and who I think should win them. My ranking shows the order I would vote. (LW) represents the likely winner and (NS) indicates a film I have never seen.
Best Picture:
I was on board when they increased the number of pictures that could be nominated from five to a high of ten. We have nine this year but all indications are that this is a two-horse race between the 14 time nominated La La Land and Moonlight. I'm going to say La La Land will likely win the award tonight by but in reality Oscar voters may be swayed and try to save face by giving Moonlight the top prize. Hidden Figures remained the most watched (in terms of Box Office receipts) of the nominated films though voters rarely take that into consideration. However they do enjoy a good historical piece, especially when it comes with a bit of controversy, but Moonlight was the preferred film so it's hard to not think that those two films will take votes away from each other. Manchester By The Sea, Lion and Hacksaw Ridge are all in the running as dark horses as well but they are missing nominations from major categories that'll make it difficult for them to be voted as best (Manchester - Editing, Hacksaw - Screenplay, Lion - Directing).
My ranking:
1. Lion
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Hidden Figures
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. La La Land (LW)
7. Fences
8. Arrival
9. Hell or High Water
Best Actor:
This is yet again a two-horse race. Casey Affleck long seemed destined to be leaving the Oscars with a statue in hand but with Denzel winning the award from the Screen Actors Guild it's hard to see him not winning here. I'm still going to go with Affleck winning however, only because Denzel is so universally liked they know he won't be hard up for an Oscar (especially already having two in his possession). Affleck deserved to be nominated and (probably win) for his roles in Gone Baby Gone and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (the later of which he was actually nominated for) so I feel like they'll give Casey an acting award before big brother Ben. Some argue that Ryan Gosling is a surprise contender but I'd wager Garfield likely gets more votes than he.
My ranking:
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (LW)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (NS)
Best Actress:
This is an interesting category. The early reviews had Portman's name on the trophy already however she's fallen off a bit as of late giving ground to Stone and Huppert who have been campaigning hard. Huppert unfortunately missed out on a SAG nomination and wasn't eligible for a BAFTA thus hurting her chances, not to mention the strong nature of Elle, which may keep some voters from watching. Negga and Streep seem to be in the same boat as "happy to be here" nominations with Negga missing most precursor nominations and Streep's record setting 20th nomination coming after an empowered speech at the Globes.
My ranking:
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (LW)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (NS)
3. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (NS)
3. Ruth Negga, Loving (NS)
Best Director:
Oddly enough, usually the film that wins best picture usually ends up with the Directing nod and although it's hard to overlook Chazelle I feel that a lot of voters will have a hard time choosing between La La Land and Moonlight and since I'm picking La La Land for best picture I'll go with Jenkins but this would be going against the precursors as Chazelle won the Director's Guild award which basically guarantees a win tonight so much to my chagrin I'll go with Chazelle taking home the gold statue.
My ranking:
1. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
3. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (LW)
4. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Best Supporting Actor:
Juan was by far the best part of Moonlight and it's about time that everyone realizes how good seasoned veteran Mahershala Ali is at his craft. The hit against him may be that he doesn't get enough screen time, the same can be said for Dev Patel who is riveting in Lion but not as good as Ali. I'm a big Michael Shannon fan but he won't factor here, nor will Jeff Bridges who plays a racist cowboy as good as anybody. If anyone unseats Ali it's likely to be newcomer Lucas Hedges who puts his stamp on Manchester by the Sea playing second fiddle to Affleck. But as always with the exception of his golden globe loss to Aaron Taylor-Johnson (who isn't nominated here) Ali has fared very well in the precursors so I'm picking him with ease.
My ranking:
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (LW)
2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (NS)
Best Supporting Actress:
Denzel has been campaigning hard for Viola Davis who despite impressive turns in films like Doubt and The Help remains Oscar-less. It's going to hard to keep that theme going as she's about as "runaway favourite" as we see this year. Michelle Williams was good with what she was given to work with, as was Kidman but both aren't on the level of Davis in Fences.
My ranking:
1. Viola Davis, Fences (LW)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
5. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best Animated Feature Film:
Although I will argue until I'm blue in the face that Kubo was not only the best animated feature this year but also the best feature this year. But like a few years back when How To Train Your Dragon 2 was my runaway pick only to be bested by a very strong Disney film (Big Hero 6), I fully expect Zootopia to walk away with the statue winning every precursor with the exception of the BAFTA.. So barring a last minute change of heart, Laika will be looking at their fourth feature only walking away with a nomination just like the three before it (Coraline, ParaNorman, The Boxtrolls).
My ranking:
1. Kubo and the Two Strings
2. Zootopia (LW)
3. Moana
4. My Life as a Zucchini (NS)
4. The Red Turtle (NS)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
No doubt in my mind that out of these five contenders Moonlight had the best script, and I don't think the voters would dispute me on that either. The problem seems to be that many voters feel the script wasn't really adapted at all which opened the door for others to win the precursor awards. I'd love to see Lion win, I'd also like to see August Wilson win his first Oscar 11 years after his death. But these are simply aspirations. Looking at the facts Moonlight deserves to win but with the voters likely voting elsewhere out of spite I can't help but wonder if Hidden Figures will see an uptick in votes. I have to stick to my guns and hope that since Barry Jenkins is likely not taking home a Directing Oscar he'll at least get one for writing.
My ranking:
1. Moonlight, Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney (LW)
2. Lion, Luke Davies
3. Fences, August Wilson
4. Hidden Figures, Allison Schroeder
5. Arrival, Eric Heisserer
Best Original Screenplay:
This award may very well set the stage for the whole night. If La La Land can pull out a win over Manchester By The Sea it may very well be the juggernaut that everyone expected, that being said Manchester not only deserves to win but should win. Kudos to the Academy giving nominations to 20th Century Women and The Lobster (their only nominations) but they aren't a real threat to the 2 heavy hitters mentioned above nor is dark horse candidate Hell Or High Water which is likely looking at an 0 for 4 night at the Oscars
My ranking:
1. Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
2. La La Land, Damien Chazelle (LW)
3. Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
4. The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou (NS)
4. 20th Century Women, Mike Mills (NS)
Before we jump into the technical categories of sound, visuals and post-production let me just say I've learned my lesson from a few years back when I avoided picking Whiplash in the sound categories... Case and point if your movie is focused on or around music and is an Oscar favourite it's likely going to take home those awards. So on that basis I'm going to say La La Land will win Sound Mixing (Sorry Hacksaw Ridge) and Original Score (Sorry Moonlight/Lion). Other sound awards La La Land is nominated for include Best Original Song (Nominated twice) and Sound Editing. These I don't think it'll take home because Lin-Manuel nominated for Moana for Original Song "How Far I'll Go" will get just enough with the 2 La La Land songs splitting the vote (Though I truly believe City of Stars deserves the win). Sound editing involves adding layers of sounds and it's hard to pick against Hacksaw Ridge in that regard even though I'm doing so in the Sound Mixing category.
Now let's look at the 2 awards La La Land is not nominated for... Makeup And Hairstyling and Visual Effects. Let's start with Makeup... Always best to look at the overall use of Makeup and although Star Trek boasts a lot of aliens, the general cast does not really wear much of note... Suicide Squad on the other hand is filled with it. Case and point after tonight we'll be saying "Academy Award Winner Suicide Squad". The fanboy in me wants Kubo to win in the Visual Effects race but it seems a stretch for an animated film. Instead I expect one of the three Disney pictures (Dr. Strange, The Jungle Book, Rogue One) to take the award. Marvel has yet to win an Oscar and although I could see Doc Strange being the first I think The Jungle Book is the more obvious choice.
Back to La La Land... I can see them losing in the Costume Design field as Jackie was more difficult in the sense that they had to recreate a beloved American's equally loved sense of style. Film Editing and Production Design I feel like are a flip of the coin between Arrival and La La Land. If La La Land is indeed as loved as Hollywood wants us to believe then it'll sweep but if the voters still want to give some awards love to other films look for Arrival to take both trophies. Finally we have Best cinematography, an award that used to go for the most beautiful film (Moonlight) however more recently we've seen films with complex shots get the award and there's nothing more complex than La La Land which is why it'll win.
I'm not going to be talking about the short awards, documentaries or foreign language pieces since I haven't seen any of them. Let's finish up by having me rank the films I've seen with more than one nomination...
1. Kubo And The Two Strings
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Moana
4. Lion
5. Manchester By The Sea
6. Moonlight
7. Hidden Figures
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. La La Land
10. Fences
11. Arrival
12. Deepwater Horizon
13. Hell Or High Water
14. Jackie
Best Picture:
I was on board when they increased the number of pictures that could be nominated from five to a high of ten. We have nine this year but all indications are that this is a two-horse race between the 14 time nominated La La Land and Moonlight. I'm going to say La La Land will likely win the award tonight by but in reality Oscar voters may be swayed and try to save face by giving Moonlight the top prize. Hidden Figures remained the most watched (in terms of Box Office receipts) of the nominated films though voters rarely take that into consideration. However they do enjoy a good historical piece, especially when it comes with a bit of controversy, but Moonlight was the preferred film so it's hard to not think that those two films will take votes away from each other. Manchester By The Sea, Lion and Hacksaw Ridge are all in the running as dark horses as well but they are missing nominations from major categories that'll make it difficult for them to be voted as best (Manchester - Editing, Hacksaw - Screenplay, Lion - Directing).
My ranking:
1. Lion
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Hidden Figures
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. La La Land (LW)
7. Fences
8. Arrival
9. Hell or High Water
Best Actor:
This is yet again a two-horse race. Casey Affleck long seemed destined to be leaving the Oscars with a statue in hand but with Denzel winning the award from the Screen Actors Guild it's hard to see him not winning here. I'm still going to go with Affleck winning however, only because Denzel is so universally liked they know he won't be hard up for an Oscar (especially already having two in his possession). Affleck deserved to be nominated and (probably win) for his roles in Gone Baby Gone and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (the later of which he was actually nominated for) so I feel like they'll give Casey an acting award before big brother Ben. Some argue that Ryan Gosling is a surprise contender but I'd wager Garfield likely gets more votes than he.
My ranking:
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (LW)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (NS)
Best Actress:
This is an interesting category. The early reviews had Portman's name on the trophy already however she's fallen off a bit as of late giving ground to Stone and Huppert who have been campaigning hard. Huppert unfortunately missed out on a SAG nomination and wasn't eligible for a BAFTA thus hurting her chances, not to mention the strong nature of Elle, which may keep some voters from watching. Negga and Streep seem to be in the same boat as "happy to be here" nominations with Negga missing most precursor nominations and Streep's record setting 20th nomination coming after an empowered speech at the Globes.
My ranking:
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (LW)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (NS)
3. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (NS)
3. Ruth Negga, Loving (NS)
Best Director:
Oddly enough, usually the film that wins best picture usually ends up with the Directing nod and although it's hard to overlook Chazelle I feel that a lot of voters will have a hard time choosing between La La Land and Moonlight and since I'm picking La La Land for best picture I'll go with Jenkins but this would be going against the precursors as Chazelle won the Director's Guild award which basically guarantees a win tonight so much to my chagrin I'll go with Chazelle taking home the gold statue.
My ranking:
1. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
3. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (LW)
4. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Best Supporting Actor:
Juan was by far the best part of Moonlight and it's about time that everyone realizes how good seasoned veteran Mahershala Ali is at his craft. The hit against him may be that he doesn't get enough screen time, the same can be said for Dev Patel who is riveting in Lion but not as good as Ali. I'm a big Michael Shannon fan but he won't factor here, nor will Jeff Bridges who plays a racist cowboy as good as anybody. If anyone unseats Ali it's likely to be newcomer Lucas Hedges who puts his stamp on Manchester by the Sea playing second fiddle to Affleck. But as always with the exception of his golden globe loss to Aaron Taylor-Johnson (who isn't nominated here) Ali has fared very well in the precursors so I'm picking him with ease.
My ranking:
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (LW)
2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (NS)
Best Supporting Actress:
Denzel has been campaigning hard for Viola Davis who despite impressive turns in films like Doubt and The Help remains Oscar-less. It's going to hard to keep that theme going as she's about as "runaway favourite" as we see this year. Michelle Williams was good with what she was given to work with, as was Kidman but both aren't on the level of Davis in Fences.
My ranking:
1. Viola Davis, Fences (LW)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
5. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best Animated Feature Film:
Although I will argue until I'm blue in the face that Kubo was not only the best animated feature this year but also the best feature this year. But like a few years back when How To Train Your Dragon 2 was my runaway pick only to be bested by a very strong Disney film (Big Hero 6), I fully expect Zootopia to walk away with the statue winning every precursor with the exception of the BAFTA.. So barring a last minute change of heart, Laika will be looking at their fourth feature only walking away with a nomination just like the three before it (Coraline, ParaNorman, The Boxtrolls).
My ranking:
1. Kubo and the Two Strings
2. Zootopia (LW)
3. Moana
4. My Life as a Zucchini (NS)
4. The Red Turtle (NS)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
No doubt in my mind that out of these five contenders Moonlight had the best script, and I don't think the voters would dispute me on that either. The problem seems to be that many voters feel the script wasn't really adapted at all which opened the door for others to win the precursor awards. I'd love to see Lion win, I'd also like to see August Wilson win his first Oscar 11 years after his death. But these are simply aspirations. Looking at the facts Moonlight deserves to win but with the voters likely voting elsewhere out of spite I can't help but wonder if Hidden Figures will see an uptick in votes. I have to stick to my guns and hope that since Barry Jenkins is likely not taking home a Directing Oscar he'll at least get one for writing.
My ranking:
1. Moonlight, Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney (LW)
2. Lion, Luke Davies
3. Fences, August Wilson
4. Hidden Figures, Allison Schroeder
5. Arrival, Eric Heisserer
Best Original Screenplay:
This award may very well set the stage for the whole night. If La La Land can pull out a win over Manchester By The Sea it may very well be the juggernaut that everyone expected, that being said Manchester not only deserves to win but should win. Kudos to the Academy giving nominations to 20th Century Women and The Lobster (their only nominations) but they aren't a real threat to the 2 heavy hitters mentioned above nor is dark horse candidate Hell Or High Water which is likely looking at an 0 for 4 night at the Oscars
My ranking:
1. Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
2. La La Land, Damien Chazelle (LW)
3. Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
4. The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou (NS)
4. 20th Century Women, Mike Mills (NS)
Before we jump into the technical categories of sound, visuals and post-production let me just say I've learned my lesson from a few years back when I avoided picking Whiplash in the sound categories... Case and point if your movie is focused on or around music and is an Oscar favourite it's likely going to take home those awards. So on that basis I'm going to say La La Land will win Sound Mixing (Sorry Hacksaw Ridge) and Original Score (Sorry Moonlight/Lion). Other sound awards La La Land is nominated for include Best Original Song (Nominated twice) and Sound Editing. These I don't think it'll take home because Lin-Manuel nominated for Moana for Original Song "How Far I'll Go" will get just enough with the 2 La La Land songs splitting the vote (Though I truly believe City of Stars deserves the win). Sound editing involves adding layers of sounds and it's hard to pick against Hacksaw Ridge in that regard even though I'm doing so in the Sound Mixing category.
Now let's look at the 2 awards La La Land is not nominated for... Makeup And Hairstyling and Visual Effects. Let's start with Makeup... Always best to look at the overall use of Makeup and although Star Trek boasts a lot of aliens, the general cast does not really wear much of note... Suicide Squad on the other hand is filled with it. Case and point after tonight we'll be saying "Academy Award Winner Suicide Squad". The fanboy in me wants Kubo to win in the Visual Effects race but it seems a stretch for an animated film. Instead I expect one of the three Disney pictures (Dr. Strange, The Jungle Book, Rogue One) to take the award. Marvel has yet to win an Oscar and although I could see Doc Strange being the first I think The Jungle Book is the more obvious choice.
Back to La La Land... I can see them losing in the Costume Design field as Jackie was more difficult in the sense that they had to recreate a beloved American's equally loved sense of style. Film Editing and Production Design I feel like are a flip of the coin between Arrival and La La Land. If La La Land is indeed as loved as Hollywood wants us to believe then it'll sweep but if the voters still want to give some awards love to other films look for Arrival to take both trophies. Finally we have Best cinematography, an award that used to go for the most beautiful film (Moonlight) however more recently we've seen films with complex shots get the award and there's nothing more complex than La La Land which is why it'll win.
I'm not going to be talking about the short awards, documentaries or foreign language pieces since I haven't seen any of them. Let's finish up by having me rank the films I've seen with more than one nomination...
1. Kubo And The Two Strings
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Moana
4. Lion
5. Manchester By The Sea
6. Moonlight
7. Hidden Figures
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. La La Land
10. Fences
11. Arrival
12. Deepwater Horizon
13. Hell Or High Water
14. Jackie
Sunday, 28 February 2016
Special: 2016 Oscars Roundup!
Hey everyone, the Oscars are tonight so it's time for me to give you my picks for what movies I think will win the awards tonight and who I think should win them. My ranking shows the order I would vote. (LW) represents the likely winner and (NS) indicates a film I have never seen.
Best Picture:
I was on board when they increased the number of pictures that could be nominated from five to a high of ten. We have eight this year but all indications are that this is a four-horse race between The Big Short, The Revenant, Room and Spotlight. I'm going to say The Revenant will likely win the award tonight but in reality Oscar voters may be swayed away from giving director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu back to back wins after taking home the top prize and best director last year for Birdman, which opens the door to indie darling Spotlight to take top honours. The Big Short was favourited early on but has since cooled meanwhile Room is being propped up by it's excellent acting and is likely a long shot to walk away with Best Picture. Overall this is a great list of candidates, all the movies I've seen I have enjoyed one way or another.
My ranking:
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Martian
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Revenant (LW)
7. Bridge Of Spies
8. Brooklyn (NS)
Best Actor:
This category is all about Leo, to say he's just a favourite would be doing him a disservice. I am willing to put money down the Leo is finally making a speech with a gold statue in hand by the end of tonight. Damon in The Martian was a lot of fun but he's not a real contender here, nor have we heard a ton about Cranston's role in Trumbo. Redmayne won last year for his turn in The Theory Of Everything but despite early festival buzz The Danish Girl's prospects have cooled off quite a bit, so much in fact it missed out on a best picture nod despite getting more nominations than Brooklyn. If there is a chance to upset here it's Fassbender's portrayal of Steve Jobs in the movie of the same title. It is the acting branch of the Academy that votes on these and they clearly have enough love for the film to give it it's only two nominations. But in the end it all comes back to the grizzled Leo that put his body and mind through hell and back filming The Revenant that is going to win the award and rightfully so.
My ranking:
1. Leonardo Dicaprio (The Revenant) (LW)
2. Matt Damon (The Martian)
3. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
4. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
5. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) (NS)
Best Actress:
Similar to Leo in the male category, the actress category is really a one pony show. Brie Larson plays a kidnapped woman forced to live in a shed for 7 years where she becomes pregnant and gives birth to a child she must now raise on her own. Ronan's turn in Brooklyn seems to be the top contender other than Larson as both Lawrence and Rampling basically got in because some of the other heavy contenders (Mara, Winslet, Vikander) ended up in the supporting category. That leaves Blanchette's role in Carol as a longshot. Blanchette has a lot of accolades and golden trophies already so I'm sure the Oscar voters would rather give a statue to one of the rising stars for more hyped performances.
My ranking:
1. Brie Larson (Room) (LW)
2. Cate Blanchette (Carol) (NS)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) (NS)
2. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) (NS)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) (NS)
Best Director:
Inarritu seems poised to win back-to-back awards for The Revenant after his Birdman victory last year, I didn't pick him then and he won so I'm picking him now, so with my luck that means he'll now lose. The sentimental pick will see Miller get a statue but the directors have long been a stingy bunch not willing to give a vote to a sentimental favourite over someone more deserving and although Fury Road was wonderful, no one can deny what Inarritu was able to accomplish in his film. The other 3 nominees are all first time directing nominees, McCarthy co-wrote Up and was previously nominated for that while he and McKay are both also nominated in writing categories for co-writing their films this year, Spotlight and The Big Short respectively) Lenny Abrahamson has long been an indie favourite but with his direction in Room he takes a step to the forefront of directors.
My ranking:
1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant) (LW)
2. Adam McKay (The Big Short)
3. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
4. Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
5. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Best Supporting Actor:
Everyone loves a villain, so that bodes well for the man who went toe-to-toe with Leo in The Revenant, unfortunately for Tom Hardy he's got a long and great career ahead of him and as I said earlier the acting branch of the Academy tend to be sentimental folks and if you saw the Globes you know where this is heading... Sylvester Stallone's return to the Rocky franchise whee he takes a young Creed under his wing is very deserving of a nod and a win tonight. Ruffalo and Bale were pieces that stood out among great ensemble's but they didn't carry their leads as well as Hardy, Stallone or the fifth nominee Mark Rylance who played an assumed Russian Spy being defended by Tom Hanks in Spielberg's Bridge of Spies.
My ranking:
1. Sylvester Stallone (Creed) (LW)
2. Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
3. Christian Bale (The Big Short)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
5. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Best Supporting Actress:
This award is likely headed into Vikander's trophy room for The Danish Girl, though the academy also would likely want to make a small nod to Ex Machina as well. Vikander plays the wife of Redmayne's cross dressing character who as you can imagine deals with quite a bit. My favourite performance from this category is Winslet's advisor to Steve Jobs. She tries her best to humanise someone with very little human qualities and sticks with Jobs through thick and thin, though she's never afraid to stand up to him when needed. Mara got knocked down to supporting actress in the eyes of the Academy but this is her 2nd nomination in 4 years, she's got a great career ahead of her and like Hardy they'll likely hand to award off to someone else more deserving this year. The final nominees are McAdams in Spotlight and JJL for The Hateful Eight, both are ensemble pieces which is difficult to get noticed amongst all the other talent.
My ranking:
1. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
2. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) (LW)
3. Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) (NS)
4. Rooney Mara (Carol) (NS)
Best Animated Feature Film:
It still shocks me that Inside Out missed out on a best picture nomination so it is perhaps no surprise that I fully expect this film to win and think it should as well. The only other nominee I've seen is Shaun The Sheep which had it's moments but is nowhere near Inside Out's pedigree. If there's an upset here it looks to come in the form of Anomalisia, an animated film from the mind of Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind).
My ranking:
1. Inside Out (LW)
2. Shaun The Sheep
3. Anomalisia (NS)
3. When Marnie Was There (NS)
3. Boy And The World (NS)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
I'm a big fan of movies made from source material that doesn't have much of a story, the perfect example of this is Michael Lewis books. Books based on math and money and something tells me the Academy is going to right their wrong when they didn't give Moneyball the prize a few years back by giving it to The Big Short this time around, It also helps that it's been cleaning up the writing awards on the circuit coming into tonight's show. Playing potential spoiler is Drew Goddard's adapting The Martian and Emma Donoghue's take on Room. Carol and Brooklyn also get nods but we're yet to hear much buzz on those nor have I seen them to comment.
My ranking:
1. The Big Short (LW)
2. The Martian
3. Room
4. Carol (NS)
4. Brooklyn (NS)
Best Original Screenplay:
Inside Out was funny, heartwarming and original. The knock on it is that no animated feature has ever won this award so I'm not expecting that to change. Spotlight won the award from the Writer's Guild so it appears to be the favourite. Bridge Of Spies has the most star-power with the Coens co-writing but it appears to be the biggest long shot. If you like underdogs than you might want to be cheering for Ex Machina or Straight Outta Compton's only nomination (for their very white writers).
My ranking:
1. Straight Outta Compton
2. Inside Out
3. Spotlight (LW)
4. Bridge Of Spies
5. Ex Machina
Best Original Score:
This is a tough one to call seeing as the favourite is probably 80 year old Ennio Morricone work on the Hateful Eight, but voters might want to see Carol walk away with something and give it to Carter Burwell who surprisingly has never won. Johann Johannsson is nominated for Sicario the year after being nominated for The Theory of Everything but it seems like he's a distant third. John Williams nailed another nomination for his work on the Star Wars franchise but this was likely nothing more than a props to him. Thomas Newman's work on Bridge of Spies is the other man in the race.
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Sicario
3. Bridge Of Spies
4. The Hateful Eight (LW) (NS)
4. Carol (NS)
Let's stop here before we get into the technical categories. Mad Max, should and will win the awards they are nominated for... Except for the following: The Revenant should and win the cinematography prize and The Big Short should win for film editing but it's likely this award will stay in Max's hands.
I'm also not going to be talking about the short awards, documentaries or foreign language pieces since I haven't seen any of them. As far as original song goes I can blindly pick one but that seems pointless. If you really want me to then the song from The Hunting Ground.So look at that, we've gotten to the end of the awards. Let's finish up by having me rank the films I've seen with more than one nomination...
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Big Short
3. Inside Out
4. Spotlight
5. The Martian
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Steve Jobs
8. Room
9. The Revenant
10. Bridge Of Spies
11. Sicario
12. Ex Machina
13. The Danish Girl
Best Picture:
I was on board when they increased the number of pictures that could be nominated from five to a high of ten. We have eight this year but all indications are that this is a four-horse race between The Big Short, The Revenant, Room and Spotlight. I'm going to say The Revenant will likely win the award tonight but in reality Oscar voters may be swayed away from giving director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu back to back wins after taking home the top prize and best director last year for Birdman, which opens the door to indie darling Spotlight to take top honours. The Big Short was favourited early on but has since cooled meanwhile Room is being propped up by it's excellent acting and is likely a long shot to walk away with Best Picture. Overall this is a great list of candidates, all the movies I've seen I have enjoyed one way or another.
My ranking:
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Martian
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Revenant (LW)
7. Bridge Of Spies
8. Brooklyn (NS)
Best Actor:
This category is all about Leo, to say he's just a favourite would be doing him a disservice. I am willing to put money down the Leo is finally making a speech with a gold statue in hand by the end of tonight. Damon in The Martian was a lot of fun but he's not a real contender here, nor have we heard a ton about Cranston's role in Trumbo. Redmayne won last year for his turn in The Theory Of Everything but despite early festival buzz The Danish Girl's prospects have cooled off quite a bit, so much in fact it missed out on a best picture nod despite getting more nominations than Brooklyn. If there is a chance to upset here it's Fassbender's portrayal of Steve Jobs in the movie of the same title. It is the acting branch of the Academy that votes on these and they clearly have enough love for the film to give it it's only two nominations. But in the end it all comes back to the grizzled Leo that put his body and mind through hell and back filming The Revenant that is going to win the award and rightfully so.
My ranking:
1. Leonardo Dicaprio (The Revenant) (LW)
2. Matt Damon (The Martian)
3. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
4. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
5. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) (NS)
Best Actress:
Similar to Leo in the male category, the actress category is really a one pony show. Brie Larson plays a kidnapped woman forced to live in a shed for 7 years where she becomes pregnant and gives birth to a child she must now raise on her own. Ronan's turn in Brooklyn seems to be the top contender other than Larson as both Lawrence and Rampling basically got in because some of the other heavy contenders (Mara, Winslet, Vikander) ended up in the supporting category. That leaves Blanchette's role in Carol as a longshot. Blanchette has a lot of accolades and golden trophies already so I'm sure the Oscar voters would rather give a statue to one of the rising stars for more hyped performances.
My ranking:
1. Brie Larson (Room) (LW)
2. Cate Blanchette (Carol) (NS)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) (NS)
2. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) (NS)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) (NS)
Best Director:
Inarritu seems poised to win back-to-back awards for The Revenant after his Birdman victory last year, I didn't pick him then and he won so I'm picking him now, so with my luck that means he'll now lose. The sentimental pick will see Miller get a statue but the directors have long been a stingy bunch not willing to give a vote to a sentimental favourite over someone more deserving and although Fury Road was wonderful, no one can deny what Inarritu was able to accomplish in his film. The other 3 nominees are all first time directing nominees, McCarthy co-wrote Up and was previously nominated for that while he and McKay are both also nominated in writing categories for co-writing their films this year, Spotlight and The Big Short respectively) Lenny Abrahamson has long been an indie favourite but with his direction in Room he takes a step to the forefront of directors.
My ranking:
1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant) (LW)
2. Adam McKay (The Big Short)
3. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
4. Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
5. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Best Supporting Actor:
Everyone loves a villain, so that bodes well for the man who went toe-to-toe with Leo in The Revenant, unfortunately for Tom Hardy he's got a long and great career ahead of him and as I said earlier the acting branch of the Academy tend to be sentimental folks and if you saw the Globes you know where this is heading... Sylvester Stallone's return to the Rocky franchise whee he takes a young Creed under his wing is very deserving of a nod and a win tonight. Ruffalo and Bale were pieces that stood out among great ensemble's but they didn't carry their leads as well as Hardy, Stallone or the fifth nominee Mark Rylance who played an assumed Russian Spy being defended by Tom Hanks in Spielberg's Bridge of Spies.
My ranking:
1. Sylvester Stallone (Creed) (LW)
2. Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
3. Christian Bale (The Big Short)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
5. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Best Supporting Actress:
This award is likely headed into Vikander's trophy room for The Danish Girl, though the academy also would likely want to make a small nod to Ex Machina as well. Vikander plays the wife of Redmayne's cross dressing character who as you can imagine deals with quite a bit. My favourite performance from this category is Winslet's advisor to Steve Jobs. She tries her best to humanise someone with very little human qualities and sticks with Jobs through thick and thin, though she's never afraid to stand up to him when needed. Mara got knocked down to supporting actress in the eyes of the Academy but this is her 2nd nomination in 4 years, she's got a great career ahead of her and like Hardy they'll likely hand to award off to someone else more deserving this year. The final nominees are McAdams in Spotlight and JJL for The Hateful Eight, both are ensemble pieces which is difficult to get noticed amongst all the other talent.
My ranking:
1. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
2. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) (LW)
3. Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) (NS)
4. Rooney Mara (Carol) (NS)
Best Animated Feature Film:
It still shocks me that Inside Out missed out on a best picture nomination so it is perhaps no surprise that I fully expect this film to win and think it should as well. The only other nominee I've seen is Shaun The Sheep which had it's moments but is nowhere near Inside Out's pedigree. If there's an upset here it looks to come in the form of Anomalisia, an animated film from the mind of Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind).
My ranking:
1. Inside Out (LW)
2. Shaun The Sheep
3. Anomalisia (NS)
3. When Marnie Was There (NS)
3. Boy And The World (NS)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
I'm a big fan of movies made from source material that doesn't have much of a story, the perfect example of this is Michael Lewis books. Books based on math and money and something tells me the Academy is going to right their wrong when they didn't give Moneyball the prize a few years back by giving it to The Big Short this time around, It also helps that it's been cleaning up the writing awards on the circuit coming into tonight's show. Playing potential spoiler is Drew Goddard's adapting The Martian and Emma Donoghue's take on Room. Carol and Brooklyn also get nods but we're yet to hear much buzz on those nor have I seen them to comment.
My ranking:
1. The Big Short (LW)
2. The Martian
3. Room
4. Carol (NS)
4. Brooklyn (NS)
Best Original Screenplay:
Inside Out was funny, heartwarming and original. The knock on it is that no animated feature has ever won this award so I'm not expecting that to change. Spotlight won the award from the Writer's Guild so it appears to be the favourite. Bridge Of Spies has the most star-power with the Coens co-writing but it appears to be the biggest long shot. If you like underdogs than you might want to be cheering for Ex Machina or Straight Outta Compton's only nomination (for their very white writers).
My ranking:
1. Straight Outta Compton
2. Inside Out
3. Spotlight (LW)
4. Bridge Of Spies
5. Ex Machina
Best Original Score:
This is a tough one to call seeing as the favourite is probably 80 year old Ennio Morricone work on the Hateful Eight, but voters might want to see Carol walk away with something and give it to Carter Burwell who surprisingly has never won. Johann Johannsson is nominated for Sicario the year after being nominated for The Theory of Everything but it seems like he's a distant third. John Williams nailed another nomination for his work on the Star Wars franchise but this was likely nothing more than a props to him. Thomas Newman's work on Bridge of Spies is the other man in the race.
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Sicario
3. Bridge Of Spies
4. The Hateful Eight (LW) (NS)
4. Carol (NS)
Let's stop here before we get into the technical categories. Mad Max, should and will win the awards they are nominated for... Except for the following: The Revenant should and win the cinematography prize and The Big Short should win for film editing but it's likely this award will stay in Max's hands.
I'm also not going to be talking about the short awards, documentaries or foreign language pieces since I haven't seen any of them. As far as original song goes I can blindly pick one but that seems pointless. If you really want me to then the song from The Hunting Ground.So look at that, we've gotten to the end of the awards. Let's finish up by having me rank the films I've seen with more than one nomination...
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Big Short
3. Inside Out
4. Spotlight
5. The Martian
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Steve Jobs
8. Room
9. The Revenant
10. Bridge Of Spies
11. Sicario
12. Ex Machina
13. The Danish Girl
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