Hey everyone, the Oscars are tonight so it's time for me to give you my picks for what movies I think will win the awards tonight and who I think should win them. My ranking shows the order I would vote. (LW) represents the likely winner and (NS) indicates a film I have never seen.
Best Picture:
I was on board when they increased the number of pictures that could be nominated from five to a high of ten. We have nine this year but all indications are that this is a two-horse race between the 14 time nominated La La Land and Moonlight. I'm going to say La La Land will likely win the award tonight by but in reality Oscar voters may be swayed and try to save face by giving Moonlight the top prize. Hidden Figures remained the most watched (in terms of Box Office receipts) of the nominated films though voters rarely take that into consideration. However they do enjoy a good historical piece, especially when it comes with a bit of controversy, but Moonlight was the preferred film so it's hard to not think that those two films will take votes away from each other. Manchester By The Sea, Lion and Hacksaw Ridge are all in the running as dark horses as well but they are missing nominations from major categories that'll make it difficult for them to be voted as best (Manchester - Editing, Hacksaw - Screenplay, Lion - Directing).
My ranking:
1. Lion
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Hidden Figures
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. La La Land (LW)
7. Fences
8. Arrival
9. Hell or High Water
Best Actor:
This is yet again a two-horse race. Casey Affleck long seemed destined to be leaving the Oscars with a statue in hand but with Denzel winning the award from the Screen Actors Guild it's hard to see him not winning here. I'm still going to go with Affleck winning however, only because Denzel is so universally liked they know he won't be hard up for an Oscar (especially already having two in his possession). Affleck deserved to be nominated and (probably win) for his roles in Gone Baby Gone and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (the later of which he was actually nominated for) so I feel like they'll give Casey an acting award before big brother Ben. Some argue that Ryan Gosling is a surprise contender but I'd wager Garfield likely gets more votes than he.
My ranking:
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (LW)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (NS)
Best Actress:
This is an interesting category. The early reviews had Portman's name on the trophy already however she's fallen off a bit as of late giving ground to Stone and Huppert who have been campaigning hard. Huppert unfortunately missed out on a SAG nomination and wasn't eligible for a BAFTA thus hurting her chances, not to mention the strong nature of Elle, which may keep some voters from watching. Negga and Streep seem to be in the same boat as "happy to be here" nominations with Negga missing most precursor nominations and Streep's record setting 20th nomination coming after an empowered speech at the Globes.
My ranking:
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (LW)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (NS)
3. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (NS)
3. Ruth Negga, Loving (NS)
Best Director:
Oddly enough, usually the film that wins best picture usually ends up with the Directing nod and although it's hard to overlook Chazelle I feel that a lot of voters will have a hard time choosing between La La Land and Moonlight and since I'm picking La La Land for best picture I'll go with Jenkins but this would be going against the precursors as Chazelle won the Director's Guild award which basically guarantees a win tonight so much to my chagrin I'll go with Chazelle taking home the gold statue.
My ranking:
1. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
3. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (LW)
4. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Best Supporting Actor:
Juan was by far the best part of Moonlight and it's about time that everyone realizes how good seasoned veteran Mahershala Ali is at his craft. The hit against him may be that he doesn't get enough screen time, the same can be said for Dev Patel who is riveting in Lion but not as good as Ali. I'm a big Michael Shannon fan but he won't factor here, nor will Jeff Bridges who plays a racist cowboy as good as anybody. If anyone unseats Ali it's likely to be newcomer Lucas Hedges who puts his stamp on Manchester by the Sea playing second fiddle to Affleck. But as always with the exception of his golden globe loss to Aaron Taylor-Johnson (who isn't nominated here) Ali has fared very well in the precursors so I'm picking him with ease.
My ranking:
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (LW)
2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (NS)
Best Supporting Actress:
Denzel has been campaigning hard for Viola Davis who despite impressive turns in films like Doubt and The Help remains Oscar-less. It's going to hard to keep that theme going as she's about as "runaway favourite" as we see this year. Michelle Williams was good with what she was given to work with, as was Kidman but both aren't on the level of Davis in Fences.
My ranking:
1. Viola Davis, Fences (LW)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
5. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best Animated Feature Film:
Although I will argue until I'm blue in the face that Kubo was not only the best animated feature this year but also the best feature this year. But like a few years back when How To Train Your Dragon 2 was my runaway pick only to be bested by a very strong Disney film (Big Hero 6), I fully expect Zootopia to walk away with the statue winning every precursor with the exception of the BAFTA.. So barring a last minute change of heart, Laika will be looking at their fourth feature only walking away with a nomination just like the three before it (Coraline, ParaNorman, The Boxtrolls).
My ranking:
1. Kubo and the Two Strings
2. Zootopia (LW)
3. Moana
4. My Life as a Zucchini (NS)
4. The Red Turtle (NS)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
No doubt in my mind that out of these five contenders Moonlight had the best script, and I don't think the voters would dispute me on that either. The problem seems to be that many voters feel the script wasn't really adapted at all which opened the door for others to win the precursor awards. I'd love to see Lion win, I'd also like to see August Wilson win his first Oscar 11 years after his death. But these are simply aspirations. Looking at the facts Moonlight deserves to win but with the voters likely voting elsewhere out of spite I can't help but wonder if Hidden Figures will see an uptick in votes. I have to stick to my guns and hope that since Barry Jenkins is likely not taking home a Directing Oscar he'll at least get one for writing.
My ranking:
1. Moonlight, Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney (LW)
2. Lion, Luke Davies
3. Fences, August Wilson
4. Hidden Figures, Allison Schroeder
5. Arrival, Eric Heisserer
Best Original Screenplay:
This award may very well set the stage for the whole night. If La La Land can pull out a win over Manchester By The Sea it may very well be the juggernaut that everyone expected, that being said Manchester not only deserves to win but should win. Kudos to the Academy giving nominations to 20th Century Women and The Lobster (their only nominations) but they aren't a real threat to the 2 heavy hitters mentioned above nor is dark horse candidate Hell Or High Water which is likely looking at an 0 for 4 night at the Oscars
My ranking:
1. Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
2. La La Land, Damien Chazelle (LW)
3. Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
4. The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou (NS)
4. 20th Century Women, Mike Mills (NS)
Before we jump into the technical categories of sound, visuals and post-production let me just say I've learned my lesson from a few years back when I avoided picking Whiplash in the sound categories... Case and point if your movie is focused on or around music and is an Oscar favourite it's likely going to take home those awards. So on that basis I'm going to say La La Land will win Sound Mixing (Sorry Hacksaw Ridge) and Original Score (Sorry Moonlight/Lion). Other sound awards La La Land is nominated for include Best Original Song (Nominated twice) and Sound Editing. These I don't think it'll take home because Lin-Manuel nominated for Moana for Original Song "How Far I'll Go" will get just enough with the 2 La La Land songs splitting the vote (Though I truly believe City of Stars deserves the win). Sound editing involves adding layers of sounds and it's hard to pick against Hacksaw Ridge in that regard even though I'm doing so in the Sound Mixing category.
Now let's look at the 2 awards La La Land is not nominated for... Makeup And Hairstyling and Visual Effects. Let's start with Makeup... Always best to look at the overall use of Makeup and although Star Trek boasts a lot of aliens, the general cast does not really wear much of note... Suicide Squad on the other hand is filled with it. Case and point after tonight we'll be saying "Academy Award Winner Suicide Squad". The fanboy in me wants Kubo to win in the Visual Effects race but it seems a stretch for an animated film. Instead I expect one of the three Disney pictures (Dr. Strange, The Jungle Book, Rogue One) to take the award. Marvel has yet to win an Oscar and although I could see Doc Strange being the first I think The Jungle Book is the more obvious choice.
Back to La La Land... I can see them losing in the Costume Design field as Jackie was more difficult in the sense that they had to recreate a beloved American's equally loved sense of style. Film Editing and Production Design I feel like are a flip of the coin between Arrival and La La Land. If La La Land is indeed as loved as Hollywood wants us to believe then it'll sweep but if the voters still want to give some awards love to other films look for Arrival to take both trophies. Finally we have Best cinematography, an award that used to go for the most beautiful film (Moonlight) however more recently we've seen films with complex shots get the award and there's nothing more complex than La La Land which is why it'll win.
I'm not going to be talking about the short awards, documentaries or foreign language pieces since I haven't seen any of them. Let's finish up by having me rank the films I've seen with more than one nomination...
1. Kubo And The Two Strings
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Moana
4. Lion
5. Manchester By The Sea
6. Moonlight
7. Hidden Figures
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. La La Land
10. Fences
11. Arrival
12. Deepwater Horizon
13. Hell Or High Water
14. Jackie
