So here we go. Oscars are tonight so let's break down the top films and on the categories I didn't talk about we'll rapid fire at the end. I've broken down the nominations into a few categories, for example in a normal 5 nomination category, the "Front Runner" is obviously the one I expect to win, anything marked "Dark Horse" I rank as the 2nd or 3rd most likely,"No Chance" I ranked 4th or 5th. Since there are 8 Best Picture nominees I added an extra Dark Horse and Front Runner. I've also added what I think they should win. Anyways on to the pictures!
Roma (10 nominations)
Quick thoughts: I really didn't enjoy this movie, foreign language films are a tough sell for me and the story was pretty bland (heh, cause it's in black and white). That being said this is getting the most buzz and is tied for the most nominations.
Front Runner: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Language Film
Dark Horse: Best Original Screenplay
No Chance: Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Production Design, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing.
Should Win: Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Language Film
The Favourite (10 nominations)
Quick thoughts: It was mildly interesting but it's basically your typical Oscar fodder film. It was shot beautifully and the acting was top notch but the story otherwise lacked.
Front Runner: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume Design
Dark Horse: Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress (x2), Best Cinematography, Best Production Design
No Chance: Best Film Editing
Should Win: Best Actress
A Star Is Born (8 nominations)
Quick thoughts: The acting was good, the direction was superb but there was no story. They literally meet in the first 20 minutes and the next hour and a half is just them being in love, her getting famous, him drinking before a tour de force last 30 minutes.
Front Runner: Best Original Song
Dark Horse: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Sound Mixing
No Chance: Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography
Should Win: Best Supporting Actor
Vice (8 nominations)
Quick thoughts: Adam McKay has really found his niche recently and although this one pales in comparison to The Big Short it's still an excellent look at one of the most polarizing administrations in US history.
Front Runner: Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Dark Horse: Best Actor, Best Film Editing
No Chance: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Best Film Editing, Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Black Panther (7 nominations)
Quick thoughts: One of my favourite films of the year. Deserves all the praise as a modern action classic and deserves to break the comic book movies mold.
Front Runner: Best Production Design
Dark Horse: Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Original Song
No Chance: Best Picture, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing
Should Win: Best Picture, Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, Best Original Score,
BlacKkKlansman (6 nominations)
Quick thoughts: A supremely poignant and funny film that tackles a serious issue. Spike Lee is back baby and he'll definitely break his 0fer at the Oscars this year.
Front Runner: Best Adapted Screenplay
Dark Horse: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Film Editing
No Chance: Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Score
Should Win: Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay
Green Book (5 nominations)
Quick thoughts: A very interesting look at how black people were forced to live 2 separate lives during the segregation. It's hard to find any faults with this movie, unfortunately it just doesn't overpower in any category compared to it's peers but it's the most solid all around.
Front Runner: Best Supporting Actor
Dark Horse: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay
No Chance: Best Actor, Best Film Editing
Should Win: Best Original Screenplay
Bohemian Rhapsody (5 nominations)
Quick thoughts: An interesting look into the life of superstar Freddie Mercury and his bandmates. A powerhouse performance from Rami Malek carried the film even if the rest of the film lags behind the power of it's star.
Front Runner: Best Actor, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Dark Horse: Best Sound Editing
No Chance: Best Picture
Should Win: Best Actor, Best Sound Mixing
Mary Poppins Returns (4 nominations)
Quick thoughts: Not being a big fan of the first I had lower expectations and I enjoyed the film for the most part. The songs were great, the colours and feel was vibrant. The actors held their own and the story was good, even if not great. But this was never a real Oscar contender.
Front Runner: None
Dark Horse: Best Production Design, Best Original Score
No Chance: Best Original Song, Best Costume Design
Should Win: Best Original Song
First Man (4 nominations)
Front Runner: None
Dark Horse: Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects
No Chance: Best Production Design
Should Win: None
If Beale Street Could Talk (3 nominations)
Quick thoughts: This was a good film with solid performances across the board. In fact I'm really surprised at it's lack of representation at the awards but it's possibly due to it not being seen by enough people with it's late release and general lack of buzz to start off the award season.
Front Runner: Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Score
Dark Horse: Best Adapted Screenplay
No Chance: None
Should Win: Best Supporting Actress
The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs (3 nominations)
Quick thoughts: This anthology film had some highs (including the one it's named after) but also some real duds that the Cohen brothers whiffed on. Overall it's worth a watch even if you just skip the ones that don't draw you in early.
Front Runner: None
Dark Horse: Best Original Song, Best Costume Design
No Chance: Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: None
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Quick thoughts: I was intrigued enough in the story to look it up afterwards and unfortunately when I realized the film took some liberties that it really didn't need to it ruined it a little bit for me. The acting is still stellar however.
Front Runner: None
Dark Horse: Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay
No Chance: Best Actress
Should Win: None
Now for the lightning round of other should/will wins
Best Sound Editing - I think A Quiet Place should and will win.
Best Visual Effects - I only touched on First Man above which could win but I think it's more likely Avengers wins however the victory should go to Ready Player One.
Best Animated Feature - This is all Spider-Verse and you know what? I'm okay with it even if I slightly preferred Ralph.
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