Hey everyone, the Oscars are tonight so it's time for me to give you my picks for what movies I think will win the awards tonight and who I think should win them. My ranking shows the order I would vote. (LW) represents the likely winner and (NS) indicates a film I have never seen.
Best Picture:
I was on board when they increased the number of pictures that could be nominated from five to a high of ten. We have eight this year but all indications are that this is a four-horse race between The Big Short, The Revenant, Room and Spotlight. I'm going to say The Revenant will likely win the award tonight but in reality Oscar voters may be swayed away from giving director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu back to back wins after taking home the top prize and best director last year for Birdman, which opens the door to indie darling Spotlight to take top honours. The Big Short was favourited early on but has since cooled meanwhile Room is being propped up by it's excellent acting and is likely a long shot to walk away with Best Picture. Overall this is a great list of candidates, all the movies I've seen I have enjoyed one way or another.
My ranking:
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Martian
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Revenant (LW)
7. Bridge Of Spies
8. Brooklyn (NS)
Best Actor:
This category is all about Leo, to say he's just a favourite would be doing him a disservice. I am willing to put money down the Leo is finally making a speech with a gold statue in hand by the end of tonight. Damon in The Martian was a lot of fun but he's not a real contender here, nor have we heard a ton about Cranston's role in Trumbo. Redmayne won last year for his turn in The Theory Of Everything but despite early festival buzz The Danish Girl's prospects have cooled off quite a bit, so much in fact it missed out on a best picture nod despite getting more nominations than Brooklyn. If there is a chance to upset here it's Fassbender's portrayal of Steve Jobs in the movie of the same title. It is the acting branch of the Academy that votes on these and they clearly have enough love for the film to give it it's only two nominations. But in the end it all comes back to the grizzled Leo that put his body and mind through hell and back filming The Revenant that is going to win the award and rightfully so.
My ranking:
1. Leonardo Dicaprio (The Revenant) (LW)
2. Matt Damon (The Martian)
3. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
4. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
5. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) (NS)
Best Actress:
Similar to Leo in the male category, the actress category is really a one pony show. Brie Larson plays a kidnapped woman forced to live in a shed for 7 years where she becomes pregnant and gives birth to a child she must now raise on her own. Ronan's turn in Brooklyn seems to be the top contender other than Larson as both Lawrence and Rampling basically got in because some of the other heavy contenders (Mara, Winslet, Vikander) ended up in the supporting category. That leaves Blanchette's role in Carol as a longshot. Blanchette has a lot of accolades and golden trophies already so I'm sure the Oscar voters would rather give a statue to one of the rising stars for more hyped performances.
My ranking:
1. Brie Larson (Room) (LW)
2. Cate Blanchette (Carol) (NS)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) (NS)
2. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) (NS)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) (NS)
Best Director:
Inarritu seems poised to win back-to-back awards for The Revenant after his Birdman victory last year, I didn't pick him then and he won so I'm picking him now, so with my luck that means he'll now lose. The sentimental pick will see Miller get a statue but the directors have long been a stingy bunch not willing to give a vote to a sentimental favourite over someone more deserving and although Fury Road was wonderful, no one can deny what Inarritu was able to accomplish in his film. The other 3 nominees are all first time directing nominees, McCarthy co-wrote Up and was previously nominated for that while he and McKay are both also nominated in writing categories for co-writing their films this year, Spotlight and The Big Short respectively) Lenny Abrahamson has long been an indie favourite but with his direction in Room he takes a step to the forefront of directors.
My ranking:
1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant) (LW)
2. Adam McKay (The Big Short)
3. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
4. Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
5. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Best Supporting Actor:
Everyone loves a villain, so that bodes well for the man who went toe-to-toe with Leo in The Revenant, unfortunately for Tom Hardy he's got a long and great career ahead of him and as I said earlier the acting branch of the Academy tend to be sentimental folks and if you saw the Globes you know where this is heading... Sylvester Stallone's return to the Rocky franchise whee he takes a young Creed under his wing is very deserving of a nod and a win tonight. Ruffalo and Bale were pieces that stood out among great ensemble's but they didn't carry their leads as well as Hardy, Stallone or the fifth nominee Mark Rylance who played an assumed Russian Spy being defended by Tom Hanks in Spielberg's Bridge of Spies.
My ranking:
1. Sylvester Stallone (Creed) (LW)
2. Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
3. Christian Bale (The Big Short)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
5. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Best Supporting Actress:
This award is likely headed into Vikander's trophy room for The Danish Girl, though the academy also would likely want to make a small nod to Ex Machina as well. Vikander plays the wife of Redmayne's cross dressing character who as you can imagine deals with quite a bit. My favourite performance from this category is Winslet's advisor to Steve Jobs. She tries her best to humanise someone with very little human qualities and sticks with Jobs through thick and thin, though she's never afraid to stand up to him when needed. Mara got knocked down to supporting actress in the eyes of the Academy but this is her 2nd nomination in 4 years, she's got a great career ahead of her and like Hardy they'll likely hand to award off to someone else more deserving this year. The final nominees are McAdams in Spotlight and JJL for The Hateful Eight, both are ensemble pieces which is difficult to get noticed amongst all the other talent.
My ranking:
1. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
2. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) (LW)
3. Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) (NS)
4. Rooney Mara (Carol) (NS)
Best Animated Feature Film:
It still shocks me that Inside Out missed out on a best picture nomination so it is perhaps no surprise that I fully expect this film to win and think it should as well. The only other nominee I've seen is Shaun The Sheep which had it's moments but is nowhere near Inside Out's pedigree. If there's an upset here it looks to come in the form of Anomalisia, an animated film from the mind of Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind).
My ranking:
1. Inside Out (LW)
2. Shaun The Sheep
3. Anomalisia (NS)
3. When Marnie Was There (NS)
3. Boy And The World (NS)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
I'm a big fan of movies made from source material that doesn't have much of a story, the perfect example of this is Michael Lewis books. Books based on math and money and something tells me the Academy is going to right their wrong when they didn't give Moneyball the prize a few years back by giving it to The Big Short this time around, It also helps that it's been cleaning up the writing awards on the circuit coming into tonight's show. Playing potential spoiler is Drew Goddard's adapting The Martian and Emma Donoghue's take on Room. Carol and Brooklyn also get nods but we're yet to hear much buzz on those nor have I seen them to comment.
My ranking:
1. The Big Short (LW)
2. The Martian
3. Room
4. Carol (NS)
4. Brooklyn (NS)
Best Original Screenplay:
Inside Out was funny, heartwarming and original. The knock on it is that no animated feature has ever won this award so I'm not expecting that to change. Spotlight won the award from the Writer's Guild so it appears to be the favourite. Bridge Of Spies has the most star-power with the Coens co-writing but it appears to be the biggest long shot. If you like underdogs than you might want to be cheering for Ex Machina or Straight Outta Compton's only nomination (for their very white writers).
My ranking:
1. Straight Outta Compton
2. Inside Out
3. Spotlight (LW)
4. Bridge Of Spies
5. Ex Machina
Best Original Score:
This is a tough one to call seeing as the favourite is probably 80 year old Ennio Morricone work on the Hateful Eight, but voters might want to see Carol walk away with something and give it to Carter Burwell who surprisingly has never won. Johann Johannsson is nominated for Sicario the year after being nominated for The Theory of Everything but it seems like he's a distant third. John Williams nailed another nomination for his work on the Star Wars franchise but this was likely nothing more than a props to him. Thomas Newman's work on Bridge of Spies is the other man in the race.
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Sicario
3. Bridge Of Spies
4. The Hateful Eight (LW) (NS)
4. Carol (NS)
Let's stop here before we get into the technical categories. Mad Max, should and will win the awards they are nominated for... Except for the following: The Revenant should and win the cinematography prize and The Big Short should win for film editing but it's likely this award will stay in Max's hands.
I'm also not going to be talking about the short awards, documentaries or foreign language pieces since I haven't seen any of them. As far as original song goes I can blindly pick one but that seems pointless. If you really want me to then the song from The Hunting Ground.So look at that, we've gotten to the end of the awards. Let's finish up by having me rank the films I've seen with more than one nomination...
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Big Short
3. Inside Out
4. Spotlight
5. The Martian
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Steve Jobs
8. Room
9. The Revenant
10. Bridge Of Spies
11. Sicario
12. Ex Machina
13. The Danish Girl
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