B.O. Preview: September 27, 2013

Another Friday with a whole new slew of releases to enjoy in theatres so let's take a look at this weekend in movies...

The biggest opening comes in the form of Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2, the sequel to the 2009 family hit which opened to 30.3 million 4 years ago on it's way to 125 million domestically, a rather low figure for family oriented animation, but a high point for Sony Animation thus far. Given the first one was well liked and the marketing job Sony has done for it's sequel, I'm expecting a huge weekend for Cloudy 2. Sony is modestly predicting the low 30 millions but I think it'll top Hotel Transylvania (42.5 million) record setting September opening last year for the above stated reasons as well as the lack of family oriented films to choose from, last week had The Wizard of Oz and Planes occupying the 9th and 10th spot respectively at the Box Office and they represented the best 2 options, The Wizard of Oz was a one week promotion and Planes will be entering it's 8th weekend so I expect families to flock to Cloudy 2 and open north of 40 million easily.

There is also a pair of romantic comedies opening up this week. Joseph Gordon-Levitt wrote, directed and starred in Don Jon opposite Scarlett Johansson. Both have nice star power but the combination of New Jersey accents and Pornography may draw some people away. It'll be in good shape with 10 million which would be up from his films 50/50 and last summer's Premium Rush and the (500) Days Of Summer effect can not be counted out since this does fall in JGL wheelhouse. Secondly African-American rom-com Baggage Claim is being released in over 2000 theatres this week which is a hefty amount for Fox Searchlight since their last release to debut in that many theatres was Street Kings way back in 2008. 10 million is possible, but with direct competition from Don Jon, that might be asking a little much.

Also following it's underwhelming limited release, formula 1 pic Rush starring Thor himself is expanding to 2,297, given it's surprisingly low numbers last week from NY and LA. I find it hard to believe that Ron Howard's film will have difficulty finding an audience in North America despite it's amazing reviews. I think we'll have to wait for award season to see a bump in sales from Rush. The low teens seems to be it's ceiling but I think we'll end up with 3 movies in the 8 - 12 million range this week.

The only other opening is Metallica Through The Never hitting IMAX's this week and although a Justin Bieber/One Direction opening is not possible, expect a solid 1 million plus opening before it goes nationwide next week. Also expanding is Enough Said the last film starring James Gandolfini which has good reviews and word of mouth, despite playing in only 277 locations, expect it to cross the million dollar threshold as well.

As far as holdovers, Insidious 2 will drop another 50%+ likely pushing it out of the top 5, the same can be said for opening week cousin The Family. As you will see below I give up on properly guessing Instructions Not Included but given the lack of adult alternatives this week, expect a small decline, the same can be said about Prisoners, We're The Millers and The Butler.

4 new inclusions in the Top 10 mean 10 have to go and unfortunately Riddick has been dropping faster than a brick after it's solid opening. The effects of The Wizard of Oz in IMAX will have worn off and after Battle of the Year's horrendous opening expect it to fall into obscurity immediately. Also longtime Top 10 Planes has reached the end of it's rope but expect it to kick around the top 15 for weeks to come.

My Predictions:

1. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs (44 million)
2. Prisoners (13.6 million)
3. Don John (11.8 million)
4. Rush (10.8 million)
5. Baggage Claim (9 million)
6. Insidious 2 (6 million)
7. Instructions Not Included (4.9 million)
8. We're The Millers (4.2 million)
9. The Butler (3.9 million)
10. The Family (3.8 million)

Last Week:

My Prediction                                                 Actual
1. Prisoners (21 mil)                                    1. Prisoners  (20.8 mil)
2. Insidious Chapter 2 (15.3 mil)                   2. Insidious Chapter 2 (13.8 mil)
3. Battle Of The Year (8 mil)                         3. The Family (7 mil)
4. The Family (7.9 mil)                                 4. Instructions Not Included (5.4 mil)
5. We're The Millers (4.2 mil)                        5. Battle Of The Year (4.6 mil)
6. The Butler (4 mil)                                     6. We're The Millers (4.6 mil)
7. Instructions Not Included (3.6 mil)             7. The Butler (4.2 mil)
8. Riddick (3.4 mil)                                      8. Riddick (3.7 mil)
9. Planes (2.4 mil)                                       9. The Wizard Of Oz (3.1 mil)
10. The Wizard Of Oz (1.8 mil)                    10. Planes (2.7 mil)

Scorecard: F  You'd think over guessing the top movie by .2 million would be a good week. But alas after that it fell off the rails. After over guessing Instructions Not Included last week, I drastically undercut it this week where it actually made money from last week. Battle Of The Year tanked even more than I had assumed it would. The Wizard Of Oz had a record setting IMAX re-release that no one seen coming. and I predicted higher declines for the bottom tier movies (Planes, Riddick, We're The Millers and The Butler) as they all made somewhere between .2 million and .4 million than I had guessed. Not to mention last week's new releases Insidious (-65.7%) and The Family (-50.1%) had steeper drops than I expected. But hey I'm hanging my hat on the closeness I was to Prisoners.