This weekend we have 2 new nationwide releases, first up opening in +2,900 theatres is the 2nd chapter of horror franchise Insidious, which follows the haunted Lambert family as they seek to uncover the mysterious childhood secret that has left them dangerously connected to the spirit world. The first Insidious grossed a mere 13 million in it's opening weekend, which is very low for a supernatural horror film, though the movie did have surprisingly strong word of mouth which lead it to finish up it's run with a 54 million total. Couple the popularity of the first film with the heavy marketing push for chapter 2 and you should see an opening above $20 million, taking into account that director James Wan was responsible for the surprise hit of the summer in "The Conjuring" I wouldn't be surprised to see it push up to $30 million especially given the Friday the 13th opening. I think any less than the originals $54 million overall would be a disappointment for the film, though I expect a steep drop off after Friday and Saturday given that at this point everyone knows what to expect from Insidious and horror movies tend not to hold that well over time so the opening weekend will likely be responsible for 50% of the movie's total income.
The other new release is Luc Besson's "The Family" starring Robert DeNiro, now by this point we know DeNiro in gangster roles generally sell tickets, even though at this point in his career he's limited to playing ex-mafioso's given the fact that he is now 112 years old. The film is cleverly marketing this as "From Martin Scorsese" as he is producing to mask the fact that Besson is indeed directing and he's best known for doing "The Fifth Element" and a bunch of middling to no success movies highlighted by "The Professional" starring Jean Reno and Gary Oldman and "The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc" starring Milla Jovovich and Dustin Hoffman in roles they'd rather forget I'm sure. So what is The Family even about? A mafia boss and his family are relocated to a sleepy town in France under the witness protection program after snitching on the mob. Despite the best efforts of Agent Stansfield (Tommy Lee Jones) to keep them in line, Fred Manzoni (Robert DeNiro), his wife Maggie (Michelle Pfeiffer) and their children Belle (Dianna Agron) and Warren (John D'Leo) can't help but revert to old habits and blow their cover by handling their problems the "family" way, enabling their former mafia cronies to track them down. Chaos ensues as old scores are settled in the unlikeliest of settings in this darkly funny film. Seems like an interesting enough storyline. I'd have to guess the floor for this movie is around 10 million although I expect something around Righteous Kill money, about 16 million. Though that was released in 2008, adjusted for today's theatre prices would be around 18 and a half million. Where as the ceiling would have to be Analyze This, adjusted for inflation would be just below 30 million, though it originally was a hair under 20 million in 1999. I can't see the latter happening but I foresee a little less than Righteous Kill... Then again, I seem to be guessing on the high end for The Family, but call me old fashioned, I love me some Tommy Lee Jones.The wild card here might be Lee Daniels' "The Butler" who has been scoring some pretty nice green from the adult crowd thus far as they have been pretty much ignored since August began, now that there is another movie playing targeted at an older crowd it'll be interesting to see if The Butler continues to hold well, thus taking money away from The Family, or if it'll start it's descent down the top 10 ladder now that it has some competition.
Expect more sharp declines (50%+) from Elysium, One Direction: This Is Us, The World's End, The Mortal Instruments: City Of Bones, Getaway and You're Next. As well as you can expect Riddick to take a similar plunge than it's predecessor did on it's second weekend (60%+) especially considering the Horror/Sci-Fi club has been looking forward to Insidious 2. This Is The End is also expected to digress in a big way after Sony threw it back into theatres to collect some more money off the back of James Franco's Roast. Movies that will have decent holds tend to be the ones that have a family appeal so continue to expect the likes of Planes, Percy Jackson: Sea Of Monsters and surprise August hit We're The Millers to lose about 40% of their grosses. Also expect to see Spanish sensation Instructions Not Included in the top 5 again as I suspect word of mouth will keep it strong and may even gain on last weeks box office this in it's 3rd week of release.
So here is how I imagine things shaking out:
1. Insidious Chapter 2 (30 million)
2. The Family (15 million)
3. Instructions Not Included (7.5 million)
4. Riddick (7 million)
5. The Butler (5.8 million)
6. We're The Millers (5.5 million)
7. Planes (3.9 million)
8. Elysium (2.5 million)
9. One Direction: This Is Us (2 million)
10. Percy Jackson: Sea Of Monsters (1.8 million)
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