Wednesday 28 November 2018

Special: 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame

It's time for the baseball hall of fame ballots to go out so I've decided to share with you my ballot... Well my ballot if I actually got one. First off some background. To be on you need to have spent 10 years in the major leagues and have been retired for at least the last 5. Once your name is included on the ballot you need to keep at least 5% of the vote to continue on the next year up to a total of 10 years before you drop off.

So in saying that there are 35 players on the ballot this year, the vast majority will drop off after their first year so lets weed those out right away as they are not worth talking about in this context. Fine careers all of them but just not hall of fame worthy:

Rick Ankiel
Jason Bay
Freddy Garcia
Jon Garland
Travis Hafner
Ted Lilly
Derek Lowe
Darren Oliver
Juan Pierre
Placido Polanco
Vernon Wells
Kevin Youkilis

Other first year candidates:

Lance Berkman
Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
Miguel Tejada
Michael Young

So in this 2nd grouping we see some definite hall of famers. Rivera deserves to be there but a few years ago we saw Trevor Hoffman be left off 1st year ballots because some voters felt "he wasn't a first ballot HOFer" which is ludicrous but I don't expect that to Rivera. He'll get in. Outside of him it's a big question mark though. Halladay and Pettitte will probably get in eventually but on the first ballot? Not likely for Pettitte, it's possible with the late great Halladay departing this world the sympathy will get him in first ballot, which he deserves. Oswalt is the only other pitcher on this list, I think he has a HOF case but it'll likely be a slow build.

How about the franchise cornerstones of Young and Helton? I think there is a possibility Young falls off right away but I think enough people will have a soft spot for him in Texas to keep him on at least 1 year. Helton has a legit HOF shot but as we'll see later people who spent their career in Colorado don't get the respect they deserve and he's also likely looking at an uphill 10 year battle on the ballot. Berkman is another cornerstone, although he did bounce out of Houston at the end of his career. I don't personally think he belongs in the HOF but I wouldn't argue against it. He's close. But with guys like Fred McGriff struggling to get traction I can see Berkman following suit. The last guy is Miguel Tejada. I wanted to highlight him since his offence numbers certainly appear hall worthy but he has steroids hanging over his head and if guys with better numbers can't get in it's likely Tejada falls off after this year.

Now onto the returnees, years on the ballot in parentheses:

Andruw Jones (2)
Scott Rolen (2)
Omar Vizquel (2)
Manny Ramirez (3)
Billy Wagner (4)
Gary Sheffield (5)
Jeff Kent (6)
Mike Mussina (6)
Sammy Sosa (7)
Curt Schilling (7)
Barry Bonds (7)
Roger Clemens (7)
Larry Walker (9)
Fred McGriff (10)
Edgar Martinez (10)

Let's tackle the steroid issue right off the bat. Bonds and Clemons were 2 of the best to ever play the game of baseball. Yes it's obvious they both used roids later on in their careers. But you can make the argument that both had already had HOF worthy careers when their heads grew 10 sizes. The same probably can not be said for other known steroid users Sheffield, Ramirez and Sosa. Until Bonds and Clemons get in (which will happen eventually) the other 3 don't have a chance. There's an argument that the hall should've just given the voters guidelines to follow when it comes to steroid users but once some break through I think that opens up the possibility of other standouts to get through.

Both McGriff and Martinez are looking at their last years on the ballot. Martinez is a slam dunk for election but unfortunately for the Crime Dog, he'll have to hope for better luck from the Vet's committee in the coming years as he'll no doubt fall short. On his penultimate year on the ballot Walker is looking to move up like Martinez did last year setting up a final year election but as mentioned earlier playing in Colorado did him no favours even though he no doubt deserves to be in the hall. That leaves one other position player on the ballot for 3+ years with Jeff Kent. He was one of the best hitting, if not the best, for a decade at the 2nd base position unfortunately his voting seems stalled but he can always hope for a surge in his last few years like Martinez and Walker got.

Only 3 first-timers from last year didn't get elected and got over 5% to move on. All 3 are known for their defense primarily, however surprisingly, the worst hitter among them has the best shot to get in with SS Vizquel, detractors will point to his sub .700 OPS but others point to his longevity and considered one of the best at the hardest position in baseball as reasons to vote him in. I believe all 3 of these guys have HOF resumes but I believe Rolen's speaks the loudest especially compared to other 3B that are already in the hall. He ranks mere percentage points behind Ron Santo in War and ahead of many other hall 3B even if most played in the dead ball era. Jones is a hard one to peg, he really only had 8 great, full seasons... However he was among the top 5 baseball players during those seasons. I think he can get in, but he'll have to campaign and it'll be a long drag out several years.

That leaves us with only a handful of pitchers to look at. I'm a Billy Wagner believer, unfortunately he was no Hoffman or Rivera so he doesn't get the attention they did but he was one of 5 guys to get 400 career saves. Sure Franco and Smith should be in but we are just now starting to realize the importance of elite relievers and I believe both will get their due eventually so why not give Wagner his while we can? How Mussina isn't in already is crazy to me but I think he'll get in, if not this year then certainly next year. That leaves us with Schilling. Look at the numbers, he belongs in the HOF, but he's also a racist asshole and there's no need for that kind of attention in the hall.

Having said all this this is how my ballot would look:

Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Mariano Rivera
Scott Rolen
Omar Vizquel
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

The big decisions was to leave off  Bonds, Clemons, Pettitte and Jones. Leaving Jones and Pettitte was strictly because they have lots of years left on the ballot. Bonds and Clemons deserve to be in the hall but there just wasn't any room on my ballot for them this year and if someones gonna go it's going to be the steroid users. Rivera and Martinez are slam dunks to get in this year and with only Derek Jeter looking like a likely 1st year vote next year it's very possible they'd both make it on next year, especially if Mussina or Halladay can join this years hall of fame class.

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